
The world is about to find out whether Donald Trump will win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize. The announcement is scheduled for Friday, October 9, just two days from now.
According to the secretary of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, 287 candidates were nominated this year, 208 individuals and 79 organizations. Reuters reported that Trump is likely among them.
Here is the nuance, and it matters. The Nobel Committee does not publish its nominee list, and Secretary Kristian Berg Harpviken declined to say whether Trump was nominated, so the nomination rests on the word of the leaders who made it.
Those leaders are not obscure. The heads of government of Cambodia, Israel and Pakistan have all said they nominated Trump.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu handed Trump a copy of his nomination letter during a visit to the White House. Pakistan’s government announced it would formally recommend him for his role in defusing the crisis with India.
Because those nominations were made in the spring and summer of 2025, they are valid for this year’s prize, since the deadline was January 31. That is the process, and it is the same one every other nominee goes through.
Supporters point to a long list of diplomatic achievements. Trump has said he helped end eight wars after returning to office, and his allies cite a series of ceasefires and peace accords brokered in 2025.
Among the efforts his backers highlight are the Abraham Accords from his first term, the de-escalation between India and Pakistan, and a treaty between Congo and Rwanda. Trump called the Congo and Rwanda agreement a great day for Africa and for the world.
Trump himself has never been shy about wanting the prize. He has said he deserves it more than anyone, and at one point he complained on Truth Social that he would not get a Nobel Peace Prize no matter what he did.
The prize has also been in the news for another reason this year. In January, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, the 2025 laureate, symbolically gave Trump her Nobel medal at the White House.
The Nobel organizers made clear that Machado remains the only official laureate. Still, the gesture was a striking show of respect from a woman who won the prize for her fight for freedom in Venezuela.
The odds have drawn attention too. In the spring, bookmaker William Hill said that although the committee had not confirmed Trump was among the candidates, it made him the leading contender.
Other names have appeared on betting sites, including Pope Leo and Yulia Navalnaya. The field is crowded, and nobody outside Oslo knows how the committee will decide.
History offers some perspective. Four American presidents have won the Nobel Peace Prize, Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Jimmy Carter and Barack Obama, and Obama won in 2009 less than a year into his first term.
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