Breaking
Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has pulled into a razor-thin lead over Democrat James Talarico in the state’s U.S. Senate race, according to a new poll released this week. The Quantus Insights survey found Paxton at 47.2% and Talarico at 46.7%, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 2.2% and 3.9% of voters undecided. The poll was taken October 9 through 11, during the final days of Talarico’s extended absence from the campaign trail.
Paxton’s half-point edge falls well within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points, meaning the race is a statistical tie. Quantus itself described the candidates as “essentially tied,” adding that “Neither candidate reaches 50%, with Brown’s support and the undecided share totaling 6.1%.” The survey comes as Talarico prepares for a CNN town hall on October 14, his biggest national stage since returning to public view last week.
Details & Background
The new numbers mark a shift from late September, when a New York Times/Siena College poll taken September 21 to 30 showed Talarico ahead 51% to 45%. Since then, Talarico went nearly two weeks without an in-person campaign event while his campaign said he was recovering from the flu. He reappeared Friday at the Austin City Limits music festival. In the Quantus survey, Paxton leads among men by 12 points, voters 65 and older by 17 points, white voters by 23 points and rural voters by 34 points, and holds a 50% to 45% edge in the suburbs.
Talarico retains clear strengths. He leads among independents 52% to 37%, among women by 10 points, among Hispanic voters by 18 points and among voters under 30 by 33 points. He also has better personal ratings, with 48.6% of voters viewing him favorably compared with 45.8% for Paxton. But asked whether each candidate is in step with Texas, 48.6% said Paxton is, while 48.3% said Talarico is out of step. The race has become the second-most expensive non-presidential race on record, with $442 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact.
Reactions
Republicans have used Talarico’s time off the trail as a central line of attack. Paxton’s campaign distributed mock “MISSING” posters and demanded that Talarico show “proof of life to the 31 million Texans he’s asking to represent.” President Donald Trump called the Democrat “MISSING IN ACTION” on Truth Social. Republican strategist Caroline Wren said on Breitbart News Saturday that “If you can’t handle the campaign trail, you sure as hell can’t handle the U.S. Senate.”
Talarico’s campaign has pushed back hard. Spokesman JT Ennis said the candidate fell ill “after holding more than 100 public events and shaking tens of thousands of hands,” and after Talarico surfaced in Austin, Ennis posted, “Hate to disappoint the conspiracy theorists, but James is still alive and meeting with voters at ACL today.” The campaign has also accused Paxton of “ignoring Texans this entire campaign.” No response from either campaign to the Quantus poll had been reported as of Wednesday.
Why This Matters to You
Texas has not elected a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988, and this seat could help decide which party controls the Senate next year. That majority will determine whether President Trump’s nominees, border security priorities and tax policies move forward or stall. With early voting set to begin October 19, a dead-even race means turnout in the suburbs and rural counties could decide the outcome.
One poll is a snapshot, not a verdict, and the margin here is too close to call. But the trend matters: a race that leaned toward Talarico in late September now looks like a coin flip after his two-week absence. Tonight’s town hall gives him a chance to reset, and the next round of surveys will show whether the momentum has truly shifted. In a race this close, every vote in Texas will carry national consequences.
