Breaking
The Texas Senate race is a coin flip with 12 days to go. A Fox News poll released Wednesday, Oct. 21, shows Republican Ken Paxton, the state’s attorney general, and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico tied at 49% among likely voters. Talarico led 51% to 49% in September, which means Paxton has erased the gap. The survey of 1,398 likely voters was conducted Oct. 15–19 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 points.
At the same time, Elon Musk has made himself one of the loudest voices in the race. On Tuesday, the world’s richest man posted on X, “The fate of Texas and America is at stake. Vote for @KenPaxtonTX today.” On Wednesday he followed with a string of attacks on Talarico, writing, “There is something deeply wrong with Talarico,” and later, “Talarico is a creep.” Talarico has fired back, accusing Musk of trying to buy the seat.
Details & Background
The poll holds good and bad news for both sides. Republicans have a 4-point edge, 51% to 47%, when Texans are asked which party they want controlling the Senate, up from a 1-point edge in September. Paxton wins white evangelicals by 52 points, white men without college degrees by 32 points and rural voters by 21 points. But Paxton’s personal ratings are underwater at 41% favorable and 58% unfavorable, and Talarico leads among Hispanic voters 64% to 34%, a group President Donald Trump narrowly carried in 2024.
Musk’s money has followed his posts. He gave a combined $158 million last month to the Senate Leadership Fund, which passed the money to Texas PAC, a group running mostly pro-Paxton ads, according to Spectrum News, citing federal filings. Senate Leadership Fund executive director Alex Latcham told Bloomberg TV the group will spend “nearly $200 million in that race.” The Trump-aligned super PAC MAGA Inc. has also spent $46 million on TV ads for Paxton, according to Fox News.
Reactions
Talarico has made Musk a central target of his closing argument. “We just found out that the richest man in the world is bankrolling the effort to install Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate and defeat this movement we’ve built in Texas,” Talarico said Sunday in Plano. “He is trying to buy Texas.” He added that on Nov. 3, voters will send a message that “Texas is not for sale.” Musk, for his part, shared a compilation of Talarico clips and wrote, “Talarico would vote to take away your kids and transition them, not just in Texas, but nationwide. Pure evil.”
Talarico has also picked up support from inside one of the Republican Party’s most famous families. Neil Bush, son of the late President George H.W. Bush, said in a Facebook post that he voted for Talarico, citing concerns about Paxton’s record as attorney general and arguing that “character matters more than party affiliation.” The Paxton campaign did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital’s request for comment. Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll, said, “The race is going to come down to two basic questions,” chief among them whether disaffected Republicans turn out for Paxton.
Why This Matters to You
Texas has not sent a Democrat to the U.S. Senate since 1988. A loss there would be a political earthquake and could cost Republicans the Senate majority they need to confirm judges, fund border security and pass President Trump’s agenda in the final two years of his term. Few races on the map carry higher stakes for conservatives nationwide.
The poll suggests the outcome will come down to turnout. Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say they are extremely interested in the election, 69% to 61%, and voters who say they are worse off financially than two years ago back Talarico by 45 points. With Musk’s money flooding the airwaves and early voting already underway, the next 12 days in Texas could decide not just one Senate seat but the balance of power in Washington.
